The clock shows 1:54 in the 4th and you’re down by 7. You have two timeouts in your pocket and 93 yards between you and paydirt. You need one more drive from your offense to keep hopes of overtime alive.
It’s a scenario football fans across the world can relate to and will certainly have endured at some point following their team but, if this week’s NFL Annual Meeting is to have any influence, that may be about to change.
Every year at the conclusion of the football season, the great and good of the NFL (and a few others) assemble to examine and dissect many aspects of the game, including possible rule changes for the season ahead. This week in Phoenix, one hot topic for conversation was what to do with the extra point.
It’s not the first time the “chip shot” has been debated at the annual get together. Only last year consideration was given to amending the line of scrimmage for the kick to the 20 or 25 yard line (and ultimately experimented with during the first two weeks of the pre-season from the 15) in an effort to make it less of a formality. The experiment worked. Sort of.
At the conclusion of the 2013 season, only 5 of the 1,321 extra points attempted were missed. That’s a conversion rate of 99.6%. Following the move back to the 15 yard line (from the 2) during preseason, 8 of the 141 attempts missed the target. That’s still a pretty solid conversion rate of 94.3%. The experiment, however, proved to be just that with kicks returning to the 2 yard line for the regular season, and kickers again almost always converting (99.4%).
It’s those sort of figures that lead many to describe the extra point as the “dullest play in sport” and meant the owners were only too willing to debate its future again at this year’s meeting. Whilst nothing was formally proposed or voted on, several ideas were put forward for consideration during lengthy discussions with a view to this time having firm proposals for voting on at the next league meeting, in May.
The same “move ’em back” idea was still tabled and, with the statistics from preseason fresh in the mind, some might argue it is an idea with some degree of merit. One other suggestion was abolishing the kick all together and leaving the only option a 2 point conversion attempt from the 2 yard line. Given the season average on successful 2 point conversions this year was just 47.5%, that is a proposal which could have a major effect on the outcome of football games (not to mention change the scoring conventions of the last 100 years).
Of course, none of these may ever see the cold hard light of a regular season game and, in my opinion, none of them should. Yes, the extra point is almost a formality, but that’s the key word here for me – almost.
I remember those final seconds of SuperBowl XXV as if they were yesterday when the Bills’ Scott Norwood watched as his “chip shot” extra point to send the game in to overtime sailed up – and wide right of the posts. Almost 13 years later in Jacksonville, John Carney sent the New Orleans Saints’ Play-Off hopes in much the same direction after one of the craziest plays in recent memory. No one expected either of them to miss, but no one has forgotten that they did.
And that’s the point (excuse the pun).
When a team drives up the field, I don’t believe it should be reduced to a lottery as to whether they are rewarded in the same way as the opposition who have just done the self same thing to them. Having just moved the ball 80 yards and found a way in to the endzone, is it really fair to ask them to do it all over again, this time from the 2, with no more than a 50/50 chance of matching the opposition who were fortunate enough to make it?
Of course the argument can be made that it is the same for both sides but I don’t believe that the 2 point conversion can be anything other than a lottery (and the statistics would tend to agree). With the whole field available, the nuances of football are in play with coaching and play calling being the major factors we know them to be in a team’s attempt to outwit the opponents and put points on the board. Stack 22 players within the last 12 yards of the playing area for a one-off attempt at success and most (if not all) of that is thrown away and replaced by luck.
Were it any more than luck, you would expect the better teams in the league to be better at it, no? The four Championship weekend teams (Patriots, Colts, Packers and Seahawks) managed to convert just 1 of their combined 8 attempts during the regular season. Meanwhile, the Bears converted all 5 of theirs. Those aren’t statistics to suggest the 2 point conversion is even closely based on respective talent levels (nothing personal Bears fans!).
Kicks are inherently less luck related, of course, but extensions to their length or difficulty pose the same set of issues.
Games that should be hard fought, close encounters should be preserved in my opinion, and not opened up to chance being the deciding factor. To make the extra point anything close to a coin flip (however that may ultimately be done) risks removing any potential for dramatic plot twists long before you’ve reached that two-minute drill.
Four Minute Drill 